For contextual purposes, let me put these three biases out there: the first is that I am a huge “America” fan; the second is I believe manufacturing created (and still sustains) the middleclass; and the third is, I am in agreement when airline flight attendants instruct us to “put your own oxygen mask on before helping your children or others put their mask on”.
Regarding my first bias, this is not to say that I am a fan of one party, or one period, or in agreement with all policies or leaders’ positions, but if I look at “America” in the context of 1776 to today, and more specifically from the 1940’s to the current day, my belief is that most people that are living in what’s described as “western democracy” are benefactors of America and its history altering constitution. Never before, in the history of humankind, have so many “common folk” had the opportunity to live in a house they own (even if they still have a mortgage, it’s still theirs’), have discretionary income (even if they say they don’t have enough, they still get to choose what they spend it on), and have recreational time (weekends and blocks of time away from the drudgery of earning a living). Go back even 150 years, and it’s only the nobles, blue bloods and elites, that had these 3 things.
My second bias comes from the net economic benefit that the manufacturing revolution brought not to just countries and companies, but to families, individual workers, and communities. The value from the outputs of primary industries (mining, farming, forestry and fishing) get multiplied many times over by secondary industries (manufacturing), and much of that multiplied economic benefit gets distributed directly over a far broader base of people.
And my third bias is simple: the best way to be able to safeguard the health and wellbeing of others is to make sure you are healthy and capable yourself. Unselfishness, charity and generosity are all virtuous but not being a good steward of what’s been entrusted to you is irresponsible.
It’s with those three biases in mind that I take a longer and more considered view of the current tariff policies (or ‘strategies’, or even just ‘tactics’) of the US, Canada, and all the countries now affected by those conversations. To me, it comes down to this: a healthy and prosperous ‘America’ has historically always been a good economic partner and foundation for countries that share similar values to build on, and to build with. And manufacturing has historically been a key driver for their whole economy, and specifically for their blue collar and middleclass sector.
It might seem selfish to many right now for US policy to favour US manufacturers or encourage more companies to try to manufacture in America, but longer term, it leaves countries like Canada with important decisions to make: do they bet on America longer term, and position themselves to be preferred partners with them going forward, or do they bet against them and put bad policies in place that distance them even further?
I know which course I would choose. ‘We’ (western society, collectively) need America to succeed and continue to be the primary economic driver for western democracy, and ‘we’ need manufacturing to continue to be the primary economic engine for many in our middleclass.
Manufacturers are salt-of-the-earth people. They build genuine win-win relationships that are measured in decades, even generations, not in years or terms. Right now, we hear feisty slogans and harmful political rhetoric, aimed at encouraging voters to believe there are better markets and customers for our industry to aim for, gambling with the long-term future of our industry for their short-term political gain. We need more manufacturers (ie. real GDP generators, real employers) speaking up and involved, and less politicians aiming to curry favour from their base. Manufacturers know how long it takes to build a sustainable business and earn the trust of good customers – because they do it day in and day out, decade by decade, generation by generation. They know what’s at risk.
If it was up to me, I would take the long view – historic and future. I’d place my bets on America succeeding, allowing our manufacturing sector to succeed as they achieve their success. They may have to succeed first (because they are the leaders and the first to act), but in truth, it’s always been that way.
That’s where I’d place my bet.
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